A Phoenix-based data firm is predicting that Arizona may have been called too soon , and will in fact flip to President Trump once all the ballots are counted.
Data Orbital is a data analytics and survey research firm located in the state’s capital. They are predicting that the number of outstanding ballots across the state will provide President Trump with the necessary votes to turn the state red again, handing Trump the state’s 11 electoral votes just as in his 2016 thrashing of Hillary Clinton.
NBC News Vaughn Hillyard provided a breakdown of rough estimates for the number of outstanding ballots yet to be counted in Arizona counties, indicating that a hefty number of ballots outstanding are coming from red counties.
Data Orbital said they were in agreement with the NBC breakdown and said that because of the number of ballots out and where those ballots are coming from, projections show Trump with a good shot of overtaking Biden in the final count in Arizona.
“This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ. These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots,” Data Orbital said on Twitter.
“The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump,” the data firm continued.
Arizona would be a huge piece of the puzzle for either candidate looking to secure 270 electoral votes.
While a number of close races rage on in crucial battleground states, it appears Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. If those states do not change, and Arizona flips to Trump, the president would win re-election with 276 electoral votes.
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs said earlier on Wednesday that she expected some change in the vote totals as counties continued to tabulate ballots and report those numbers to the state.
Many pundits in the media assumed that Arizona was a done deal in favor of Joe Biden after a massive data error published by Edison Research – a group used by major news organizations such as the New York Times – led many to believe that a larger percentage of the state’s vote had been counted.
The game-changing error suggested that 98% of Arizona precincts had reported the vote, when in actuality the number was only 86%.
New York Times editor Patrick LaForge tweeted, “An error was found in the data feed from Edison Research (used by @nytimes and other news organizations) for Arizona results – 86 percent of ballots have ben counted, not 98%. NYT has not called the state for Biden, though he still leads.”
Fox News was the first media outlet to make the now-highly uncertain call that Biden had won Arizona, leading to a hefty amount of backlash.
“WAY too soon to be calling Arizona…way too soon,” wrote Trump 2020 senior adviser Jason Miller, saying the campaign believed two-thirds of the outstanding votes will be going to Trump.
“Can’t believe Fox was so anxious to pull the trigger here after taking so long to call Florida. Wow,” he went on, noting that Fox waited until 98 percent of the vote was counted in the Sunshine State.
Miller said there were more than 1 million uncounted votes and accused the network of trying to “invalidate” them.
Fox News decision desk director Arnon Mishkin stood by the call and said the outstanding votes were coming from Maricopa County, where Biden was in “very good standing.”
“I’m sorry, the president is not going to be able to take over and win enough votes to eliminate the seven-point lead the former vice president has,” Mishkin said. “We are four standard deviations from being wrong and I’m sorry, we’re not wrong in this case,” he said, a claim which now seems to be rather embarrassing for the mainstream media outlet to have made.